贝叶斯神经网络中近似后期的估计不确定性易于进行错误校准，这导致关键任务中的预测过高，这些任务的预测明显不对称或损失明显。在这里，我们通过在深度学习中校准不确定性后的模型上最大化预期效用，扩展了对损失的贝叶斯框架的近似推断，以最大程度地提高预期效用。此外，我们表明，通过损失不确定性告知的决策可以比直接替代方案更大程度地提高诊断性能。我们提出最大的不确定性校准误差（MUCE）作为测量校准置信度的指标，除了其预测外，特别是对于高风险应用程序，其目标是最大程度地减少误差和估计不确定性之间的最坏情况偏差。在实验中，我们通过将Wasserstein距离作为预测的准确性来显示预测误差与估计不确定性之间的相关性。我们评估了我们从X射线图像中检测COVID-19的方法的有效性。实验结果表明，我们的方法大大减少了错误校准，而不会影响模型的准确性并提高基于计算机的诊断的可靠性。

与其他癌症相比，胰腺癌具有最差的预后之一，因为它们已被诊断出癌症已朝着后期阶段发展。当前用于诊断胰腺腺癌的手动组织学分级是耗时的，通常会导致误诊。在数字病理学中，基于AI的癌症分级必须在预测和不确定性量化方面非常准确，以提高可靠性和解释性，对于获得临床医生对技术的信任至关重要。我们提出了MGG自动化胰腺癌分级的贝叶斯卷积神经网络，他对图像进行了染色，以估计模型预测中的不确定性。我们表明，估计的不确定性与预测误差相关。具体而言，它对于使用权衡分类准确性 - 拒绝权衡和错误分类成本的度量标准来设置验收阈值很有用，可以通过超参数控制，并且可以在临床环境中使用。

Deep reinforcement learning has considerable potential to improve irrigation scheduling in many cropping systems by applying adaptive amounts of water based on various measurements over time. The goal is to discover an intelligent decision rule that processes information available to growers and prescribes sensible irrigation amounts for the time steps considered. Due to the technical novelty, however, the research on the technique remains sparse and impractical. To accelerate the progress, the paper proposes a general framework and actionable procedure that allow researchers to formulate their own optimisation problems and implement solution algorithms based on deep reinforcement learning. The effectiveness of the framework was demonstrated using a case study of irrigated wheat grown in a productive region of Australia where profits were maximised. Specifically, the decision rule takes nine state variable inputs: crop phenological stage, leaf area index, extractable soil water for each of the five top layers, cumulative rainfall and cumulative irrigation. It returns a probabilistic prescription over five candidate irrigation amounts (0, 10, 20, 30 and 40 mm) every day. The production system was simulated at Goondiwindi using the APSIM-Wheat crop model. After training in the learning environment using 1981--2010 weather data, the learned decision rule was tested individually for each year of 2011--2020. The results were compared against the benchmark profits obtained using irrigation schedules optimised individually for each of the considered years. The discovered decision rule prescribed daily irrigation amounts that achieved more than 96% of the benchmark profits. The framework is general and applicable to a wide range of cropping systems with realistic optimisation problems.

Understanding why a model makes certain predictions is crucial when adapting it for real world decision making. LIME is a popular model-agnostic feature attribution method for the tasks of classification and regression. However, the task of learning to rank in information retrieval is more complex in comparison with either classification or regression. In this work, we extend LIME to propose Rank-LIME, a model-agnostic, local, post-hoc linear feature attribution method for the task of learning to rank that generates explanations for ranked lists. We employ novel correlation-based perturbations, differentiable ranking loss functions and introduce new metrics to evaluate ranking based additive feature attribution models. We compare Rank-LIME with a variety of competing systems, with models trained on the MS MARCO datasets and observe that Rank-LIME outperforms existing explanation algorithms in terms of Model Fidelity and Explain-NDCG. With this we propose one of the first algorithms to generate additive feature attributions for explaining ranked lists.

We present the Recurrent Interface Network (RIN), a neural net architecture that allocates computation adaptively to the input according to the distribution of information, allowing it to scale to iterative generation of high-dimensional data. Hidden units of RINs are partitioned into the interface, which is locally connected to inputs, and latents, which are decoupled from inputs and can exchange information globally. The RIN block selectively reads from the interface into latents for high-capacity processing, with incremental updates written back to the interface. Stacking multiple blocks enables effective routing across local and global levels. While routing adds overhead, the cost can be amortized in recurrent computation settings where inputs change gradually while more global context persists, such as iterative generation using diffusion models. To this end, we propose a latent self-conditioning technique that "warm-starts" the latents at each iteration of the generation process. When applied to diffusion models operating directly on pixels, RINs yield state-of-the-art image and video generation without cascades or guidance, while being domain-agnostic and up to 10$\times$ more efficient compared to specialized 2D and 3D U-Nets.

Imitation learning (IL) is a simple and powerful way to use high-quality human driving data, which can be collected at scale, to identify driving preferences and produce human-like behavior. However, policies based on imitation learning alone often fail to sufficiently account for safety and reliability concerns. In this paper, we show how imitation learning combined with reinforcement learning using simple rewards can substantially improve the safety and reliability of driving policies over those learned from imitation alone. In particular, we use a combination of imitation and reinforcement learning to train a policy on over 100k miles of urban driving data, and measure its effectiveness in test scenarios grouped by different levels of collision risk. To our knowledge, this is the first application of a combined imitation and reinforcement learning approach in autonomous driving that utilizes large amounts of real-world human driving data.

Reliably planning fingertip grasps for multi-fingered hands lies as a key challenge for many tasks including tool use, insertion, and dexterous in-hand manipulation. This task becomes even more difficult when the robot lacks an accurate model of the object to be grasped. Tactile sensing offers a promising approach to account for uncertainties in object shape. However, current robotic hands tend to lack full tactile coverage. As such, a problem arises of how to plan and execute grasps for multi-fingered hands such that contact is made with the area covered by the tactile sensors. To address this issue, we propose an approach to grasp planning that explicitly reasons about where the fingertips should contact the estimated object surface while maximizing the probability of grasp success. Key to our method's success is the use of visual surface estimation for initial planning to encode the contact constraint. The robot then executes this plan using a tactile-feedback controller that enables the robot to adapt to online estimates of the object's surface to correct for errors in the initial plan. Importantly, the robot never explicitly integrates object pose or surface estimates between visual and tactile sensing, instead it uses the two modalities in complementary ways. Vision guides the robots motion prior to contact; touch updates the plan when contact occurs differently than predicted from vision. We show that our method successfully synthesises and executes precision grasps for previously unseen objects using surface estimates from a single camera view. Further, our approach outperforms a state of the art multi-fingered grasp planner, while also beating several baselines we propose.

Hawkes processes have recently risen to the forefront of tools when it comes to modeling and generating sequential events data. Multidimensional Hawkes processes model both the self and cross-excitation between different types of events and have been applied successfully in various domain such as finance, epidemiology and personalized recommendations, among others. In this work we present an adaptation of the Frank-Wolfe algorithm for learning multidimensional Hawkes processes. Experimental results show that our approach has better or on par accuracy in terms of parameter estimation than other first order methods, while enjoying a significantly faster runtime.

Online ride-hailing services have become a prevalent transportation system across the world. In this paper, we study a challenging problem of how to direct vacant taxis around a city such that supplies and demands can be balanced in online ride-hailing services. We design a new reward scheme that considers multiple performance metrics of online ride-hailing services. We also propose a novel deep reinforcement learning method named Deep-Q-Network with Action Mask (AM-DQN) masking off unnecessary actions in various locations such that agents can learn much faster and more efficiently. We conduct extensive experiments using a city-scale dataset from Chicago. Several popular heuristic and learning methods are also implemented as baselines for comparison. The results of the experiments show that the AM-DQN attains the best performances of all methods with respect to average failure rate, average waiting time for customers, and average idle search time for vacant taxis.

Importance: Social determinants of health (SDOH) are known to be associated with increased risk of suicidal behaviors, but few studies utilized SDOH from unstructured electronic health record (EHR) notes. Objective: To investigate associations between suicide and recent SDOH, identified using structured and unstructured data. Design: Nested case-control study. Setting: EHR data from the US Veterans Health Administration (VHA). Participants: 6,122,785 Veterans who received care in the US VHA between October 1, 2010, and September 30, 2015. Exposures: Occurrence of SDOH over a maximum span of two years compared with no occurrence of SDOH. Main Outcomes and Measures: Cases of suicide deaths were matched with 4 controls on birth year, cohort entry date, sex, and duration of follow-up. We developed an NLP system to extract SDOH from unstructured notes. Structured data, NLP on unstructured data, and combining them yielded seven, eight and nine SDOH respectively. Adjusted odds ratios (aORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using conditional logistic regression. Results: In our cohort, 8,821 Veterans committed suicide during 23,725,382 person-years of follow-up (incidence rate 37.18 /100,000 person-years). Our cohort was mostly male (92.23%) and white (76.99%). Across the six common SDOH as covariates, NLP-extracted SDOH, on average, covered 84.38% of all SDOH occurrences. All SDOH, measured by structured data and NLP, were significantly associated with increased risk of suicide. The SDOH with the largest effects was legal problems (aOR=2.67, 95% CI=2.46-2.89), followed by violence (aOR=2.26, 95% CI=2.11-2.43). NLP-extracted and structured SDOH were also associated with suicide. Conclusions and Relevance: NLP-extracted SDOH were always significantly associated with increased risk of suicide among Veterans, suggesting the potential of NLP in public health studies.